286. Will 2024 be the year of the polarised recession?

Dr. Niall O’Connor, manager of SVS Brooks Macdonald Defensive Capital, gives a comprehensive overview of the financial landscape for investors, including the role of inflation, interest rates, asset valuations across various markets and, ultimately, where there may be opportunities. We delve into the dynamics of investment trusts - including the substantial discounts some are trading at - with Niall highlighting the potential for mergers and acquisitions in this space. We finish with Niall giving his outlook for 2024 and the polarised nature of a potential recession in the UK.
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Long-term capital growth and protection is the objective of this defensive, multi-asset fund. A key feature is that investments often do not require market growth to provide a positive total return and are supported by having significant underlying asset cover. Niall uses the range of tools available to him to dial up or dial down the fund’s sensitivity to market movements, which results in an intelligent investment mix that will see investors through a range of market conditions.

What’s covered in this episode: 

  • Will the Bank of England raise target inflation to 4%
  • Have interest rates peaked
  • The lag in monetary policy
  • How UK mortgages will be impacted in 2024
  • The discounts available on investment trusts
  • M&A activity in the UK, starting with Round Hill Music
  • Will US private equity investors start buying out UK investment trusts?
  • The appeal of student accommodation and how it differs from commercial property
  • Why government bonds are actually offering negative real rates
  • The appeal of short dated index-linked gilts
  • How the managers targets yield in the fund
  • Why recession will be very polarised in the UK …and some may not even feel it
  • UK and US valuations as we head into 2024
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