Gold gets a thumbs-down

By the start of October, gold equities had risen 132% in sterling terms in 2016¹. So our monthly poll asked – would you still buy? Half of our respondents said no, they would not buy gold mining shares at this point.

So has gold had its run for now? We’ve had a series of events, such as the Brexit vote, that have pushed up volatility this year and encouraged investors to seek out safe haven assets. Hence the precious metal’s price rise – the commodity itself was up 40% for the year-to-date at the start of October, in sterling terms².

But can gold keep shining?

Yet there may be more fuel in the tank. And it’s important to remember that gold remains a valuable portfolio diversifier at any stage in the cycle.

The US election result could cause further market volatility around the world. Plus as the currency value deteriorates here in Britain, inflation is rising for the first time in a long time. If inflation starts to climb too quickly, gold could be once again in demand. This is because gold can’t be re-produced and its supply is finite, unlike cash, which becomes less valuable in environments of very high inflation.

One other thing to keep in mind is that while the price of the precious metal has shot up this year, it is still only at US$1,286 – which is a long way below its 2011 highs of US$1,890³.

Something to think about for the 23% of poll respondents who said they were undecided about whether or not to buy!

Read more: Gold – to buy or not to buy?

¹Source: FE Analytics, MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners IMI, total returns in GBP, 01/01/2016–01/10/2016
²Source: FE Analytics, Bloomberg Gold Sub, total returns in GBP, 01/01/2016–01/10/2016

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