Check without mate: navigating markets with an unpredictable endgame

By Chris Salih on 15 April 2026 in Multi-Asset

Did you know that humans have been playing chess against computers for over 70 years now? While early programs were weak and required substantial computing power, they have evolved from barely beating beginners to consistently defeating the best human players in the world by the late 1990s.

Many would argue the best way to beat the computer is by taking the “anti-computer” play or “taking the computer out of its book” by playing so erratically that it disrupts their ability to calculate based on standard chess theory and pattern recognition.

Donald Trump is the “anti-computer” for financial markets. The US president was partly elected on the basis of not bringing the US into protracted wars (the electorate also wanted an end to the inflationary spike) – yet he now finds himself potentially getting caught up in a long-term event that causes this spike.

The question is how do you invest at a time like this when the most powerful man in the world believes they should win a Nobel Peace Prize yet is happy to threaten/tweet that “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran did not make a deal on 7 April. Trump and volatility appear to go hand in hand.

With a real binary outcome possible, most multi-asset managers we spoke to suggested they believe the best thing they can do in this uncertain period is to remain as cautious, balanced and diversified as possible – with further volatility almost a certainty.

Credo Dynamic fund manager Rupert Silver says the situation is similar to what we saw with tariffs in 2025 – while we can scramble around in these volatile markets amid such uncertainty, sometimes the best thing to do is nothing.

Orbis Global Cautious manager Alec Cutler agrees – he says when the market is in a crisis, it tries to “oversimplify events and not get freaked out”. However, he says when it does that it can run off in one direction and create opportunities for patient fund managers and investors. He says this has already happened on this occasion, with markets making a snap decision – with factor models and then quant/hedge funds amplifying this decision.

He says: “On Day 1 (2 March) the US dollar took off amid fears of what is happening with Iran. The idea is that people are certain oil will cost more so they need to buy oil – and oil is in US dollars. This caused factor models to kick in and sell every other currency – the US dollar is going up so every other currency is going down with no differentiation between currencies that are beneficiaries of this (like the Norwegian Krone, Brazilian Real and the Aussie dollar).”

Four sensible calls

Many multi-asset managers we spoke to say they were already very cautiously positioned heading into this latest bout of significant geopolitical uncertainty. They also believe markets have begun to become accustomed to the Trump “Taco trade”.

However, there have been opportunities at the margins they have been able to take advantage of. One that stands out is the bond market. A month or so ago, the market was expecting two interest rate cuts (UK), however the outbreak of war in the Middle East saw this dramatically change, with four hikes priced in by the Bank of England in late-March 2026.

Silver says he quickly took advantage of the move in the bond market – deploying some of their cash into fixing at 5-6% on one year money into some government and corporate bonds. He says:

Cutler points to similar debt opportunities on a global scale – citing the aforementioned opportunities in Australia, Brazil and Norway. His fund had already been long the Aussie dollar and the Norwegian Krone, but not the bonds. But following March 2, when all the bonds sold off, they were able to buy Aussie 1, 3 and 5 years at 5%.

He says: “All Norway does is sell oil, gas and electricity – it has to be a massive beneficiary of this. Australia is one of the biggest exporters of natural gas and coal, while Brazil is a big oil and food exporter. We could’ve increased the FX position, but because the bonds were selling off we were able to get hold of 1-2 year Brazilian paper at 13-14% (9% real). Aussie and Norwegian paper at 5%.”

Defence stocks were popular choices heading into the uncertainty, with Trump’s rhetoric towards Europe and the greater need for defence budgets. Momentum Diversified Monthly Income manager Richard Parfact says one of the changes he has introduced following the conflict is a new defence ETF, an exposure he thinks may well increase over time.

Silver says they held European defence going into this period – but has since added a position in a US defence business. He says Trump values power and the US has already used a number of its missiles, while the uncertainty around NATO is not going away.

“When wars end there is a knee-jerk reaction to defence stocks (being sold). People sell and they actually have 5-6 year contracts protecting revenues – so this is actually an opportunity,” he says.

Rathbone Strategic Growth Portfolio manager David Coombs says much of the discussion around “stranded oil and gas assets” isover, given the rising prices among both assets due to the war. He says it makes sense to keep hold of a decent exposure to the oil industry – adding that the oil majors were a much more effective diversifier than bonds or other alternative assets, such as gold*. He says:

IFSL Wise Multi-Asset Income manager Philip Matthews says renewables currently account for about 5% of his fund – but around 10% of the income. He cites positions in the likes of Bluefield Solar Income and Foresight Environmental Infrastructure Limited as examples of holdings which offered strong alternative exposure to energy.

Matthews says the yields are incredibly attractive across a number of renewables – but there are more concerns to take on board for increased returns. By contrast he says core infrastructure remains really attractive, citing positions in both HICL and GCP Infrastructure as examples. He says: “HICL sold one of its largest positions (a toll road in France) during this crisis. It is probably the asset most sensitive to the oil price (petrol prices) as volumes would go down on the toll road – yet it still sold for a 22% premium in the depths of a crisis.”

Three hammered safe havens: battered but not beaten

Having hit an all-time price high of over $5,500 per ounce in January 2026, gold has been hit hard by the recent sell-off, with many industry commentators questioning its role as a safe haven in investment portfolios. This has been for a number of reasons, ranging from a liquidity squeeze, the stronger dollar & higher yields, and profit taking.

The asset class has mounted a recovery of sorts – but analysts remain divided on expectations from here. Orbis’s Cutler says he was trimming gold in the cautious fund prior to the uncertainty as he was running out of catalysts due to the price. However, he has been adding recently because he believes the “sell-off was purely tourists buying gold for momentum’s sake – not anything to do with fundamentals”. He adds:

“Trump thought this would be over quickly – but he now realises this is not likely and has to figure out how they get out of it. If this is the world’s biggest Taco trade – gold is the place to be. He will go back to the US and try to press rates down and will push stimulus into the mid-terms,” he adds.

Wise’s Matthews has been adding to emerging market names like PruSik Asian Equity Income and Pacific North of South EM Equity. He says there is a bifurcation in valuations between tech/semiconductor markets like Korea and Taiwan – and areas like the Philippines and Indonesia, where there are deep value opportunities as valuations have hit rock bottom.

Coombs says as the US becomes an increasingly unreliable partner, we may see Asian countries align even more with China in technology and commerce, adding there may be some opportunities for growth as global businesses look to align with the Chinese technology stack and economic sphere. This geographic diversity may dampen some of the economic risks.

Matthews says property has been the most challenged sector in the past month or so of uncertainty – highlighting the change in interest rate expectations, high bond yields and concerns over economic growth. He has been looking to upgrade his property positions into higher-quality players who can take advantage of the valuation upside, but with minimal downside impact. Examples include the addition of British Land and the TR Property Trust (which has the double discount of both its underlying asset falling and its own discount).

He says: “British Land is the classic example of a quality player that has taken a hit in March but the underlying tailwind is there is a shortage of central London offices which shows no sign of changing.”

A balanced outlook

Jupiter Merlin Balanced fund manager John Chatfeild Roberts says febrile markets continue to weigh up Trump’s every word and are unsure what to make of any of them.

He says: “Volatility remains the order of the day with commodity prices, equity and bond indices lurching in both directions as hopes are raised and dashed for a resolution.

“In the absence of clear objectives, defining “Victory” will be far from easy. But we remain firmly of the opinion that the possible combination of Trump failing to complete regime change in Iran and doing a bad deal with Russia in Ukraine simply for the political expediency of minimising the damage at the US mid-term elections, will leave the world a far less secure place. Even than it already is.”

Silver says they have added a 2.5% position across a number of hedges to mitigate further geopolitical uncertainty. These included a longer-dated oil position, a position in AQR Managed Futures (a strategy which aims to profit from both rising and falling markets, targeting positive returns with low correlation to traditional stock and bond portfolios), as well as buying some agriculture, specifically corn, adding that much of the nitrogen comes through the Middle East – meaning the price will be impacted if the conflict is drawn out.

Cutler says there is no alternative than to be incredibly cautious, adding that markets are being too complacent and continue to “buy dips in full force”. He says there is a chance this is a world-changing event – particularly if Iran has not lost anything meaningful and continues to control oil coming out of the Persian Gulf. He says: